DOHA, Qatar — Exhilarating chaos consumed the 2022 World Cup as midnight approached on Wednesday. For nearly an hour at two bouncing stadiums on both facet of downtown Doha, the group stage of this superb event reached peak pleasure. Argentina fended off stress, whereas Mexico roared to life, and left Polish gamers frantically attempting to carry on to second place in Group C. All of the whereas, Polish followers and staffers frantically tracked Mexico’s sport in opposition to Saudi Arabia, hoping, maybe praying to the soccer gods, {that a} third Mexican objective wouldn’t come.
It was heart-pounding stuff. It resulted in a shocking Saudi objective that despatched Polish gamers, having simply completed their sport, leaping into the air. A minute later, they huddled round a telephone, and erupted once more after they noticed the Mexico-Saudi Arabia sport go ultimate.
It was, in a nutshell, the whole lot that makes the World Cup group stage so splendid. And it would by no means occur once more.
For seven many years, ever since FIFA may discover 16 keen World Cup contributors, probably the most profitable single-sport event on the planet has begun with teams of 4. In 2026, barring a FIFA re-think, that can change. The World Cup is increasing from 32 to 48 groups. The present plan is to maneuver from eight teams of 4 to 16 teams of three.
It could be the top of simultaneous video games, and the doubtless finish of soccer giants staring down early elimination. It could encourage fishiness and defensive soccer. It could be an unmitigated abomination, a pointless detonation of two of probably the most thrilling weeks in all of sport.
The one hope is that, with three years nonetheless separating the current from the 2026 World Cup draw, and the 2026 match calendar nonetheless underneath building, the FIFA Council will rethink.
2026 World Cup format defined
The beforehand agreed-upon format for 2026 would characteristic three-team teams, with two of three from every advancing to a 32-team knockout stage.
The obvious flaws, in fact, are the essentially imbalanced rhythm of video games and the chance that groups may advance with out profitable a sport and even scoring a objective. Two factors can be sufficient for second place in a three-team group, except the third sport of the group can be a draw, which would go away all three groups tied on two factors and separated by tiebreakers. (Yuck.)
The rhythm of video games, in the meantime — Staff A versus B on Day 1, Staff B versus C on Day 5, Staff A versus C on Day 9 — would create frequent situations the place Groups A and C are each completely proud of a draw on the ultimate day.
There have been solutions that penalty shootouts may precede or observe every group-stage sport, primarily as a tiebreaker. However they’d extra doubtless create issues than resolve issues. The one actual repair can be a distinct format.
A World Cup wild-card spherical?
The perfect 48-team format would keep on with teams of 4. There’d be 12 of them, which results in two urgent questions:
-
How do you get from 12 teams of 4 to a knockout spherical whose measurement is a a number of of 16? (If the highest two groups advance from every, the event would go from 48 to 24 to 12, 6, and … 3. That doesn’t work.)
-
How do you retain the size of the event manageable?
The reply to the primary query, and a part of the reply to the second, is a “wild-card spherical.” The eight finest group winners — the eight of 12 with the very best level totals (and, if tied, finest objective differentials) — would get a bye into the Spherical of 16. The opposite 4 and the 12 runners-up would go right into a 16-team spherical of elimination video games, with the winners advancing to a typical Spherical of 16 to face the highest eight group winners.
And growth, the standard thrill of the World Cup can be restored.
As for the second query, the original proposal from North American bid chiefs for 2026 was for a 34-day event, barely longer than the standard 32 days and the compressed 29-day calendar in Qatar. The 2 methods to accommodate four-team teams and a “wild-card spherical” can be to extend the size of the event from 34 to roughly 39 days, or to remain at 34 by growing the variety of group stage video games per day from 4 to 6.
Six video games per day would sound overwhelming, however may really make it simpler for FIFA to accommodate time variations between the Americas and Europe, Africa and Asia.
Video games may keep in distinctive home windows at 11 a.m. ET (which is 7 p.m. Arabian Commonplace Time), 1:30 p.m. (which is 7:30 p.m. Central European Time), 4 p.m., 6:30 p.m., 9 p.m. and 11:30 p.m. ET (which is 8:30 p.m. PT, and 1:30 p.m. in Tokyo).
Or they may overlap on a staggered cadence, NCAA basketball tournament-style.
And for the gamers? The day-to-day cadence would really be the identical as it’s right here in Qatar. The co-hosts — the U.S., Canada and Mexico — may every play on opening day. The opposite three video games from their group can be Day 2. And from there, every workforce would play each fourth day.
The principle counterargument right here is that it appears unfair to throw 4 group winners into the wild-card spherical. However, quite the opposite, there’s a profit: All the massive groups, even when they’ve received two video games and clinched a spot atop their group — like France in 2022 — would have one thing to play for on Matchday 3.
What a 48-team World Cup may, and will, seem like
It’s troublesome to totally conceptualize what a 48-team World Cup will seem like. Qualifying all the time springs surprises, and FIFA’s rankings can weirdly fluctuate. However in 2022, 16 teams of three would have appeared one thing like this:
Group A: Qatar, Wales, Ecuador
Group B: England, Colombia, Algeria
Group C: Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia
Group D: France, Chile, Australia
Group E: Spain, Japan, Tunisia
Group F: Belgium, Morocco, Canada
Group G: Brazil, Serbia, Cameroon
Group H: Portugal, Iran, Mali
Group I: Italy, Peru, Jamaica
Group J: Mexico, Croatia, UAE
Group Ok: Netherlands, Senegal, Iraq
Group L: Denmark, South Korea, New Zealand
Group M: Germany, Nigeria, Panama
Group N: Uruguay, Ukraine, Ghana
Group O: Switzerland, Costa Rica, Egypt
Group P: United States, Sweden, Oman
Whereas 12 teams of 4 would look one thing like this:
Group A: Qatar, Wales, Ecuador, Ghana
Group B: England, Colombia, Ukraine, Algeria
Group C: Argentina, United States, Poland, Saudi Arabia
Group D: France, Sweden, Chile, Australia
Group E: Spain, Japan, Tunisia, Panama
Group F: Belgium, Croatia, Morocco, Canada
Group G: Brazil, Switzerland, Serbia, Cameroon
Group H: Portugal, Iran, Mali, Jamaica
Group I: Italy, Peru, Costa Rica, Oman
Group J: Mexico, Germany, Nigeria, UAE
Group Ok: Netherlands, Senegal, South Korea, New Zealand
Group L: Denmark, Uruguay, Egypt, Iraq
The make-up of the hypothetical teams, although, are unimportant. The incentives and stakes inside every of them are what rely upon the format. And it feels just like the drama of the group stage, which has simply gripped us for 2 weeks, is dependent upon the redrawing up of what a 48-team World Cup will seem like.