Vladimir Putin has guess his personal and his nation’s future on beginning the most important conflict in Europe for generations.
Xi Jinping, probably the second most powerful particular person on the planet, may have a profound affect on its end result.
However can he finish it? And does he actually wish to?
These had been the questions on everybody’s thoughts because the Chinese president landed in Moscow on Monday morning.
Direct talks between Ukraine and Russia stalled months in the past, and it at present appears unattainable to think about both facet making a concession that the opposite would settle for.
There are two methods Mr Xi could cut that Gordian knot.
The primary is to inform Mr Putin over their sturgeon soup dinner to get actual, settle for he can by no means win the conflict, and that it’s time for a “face-saving” withdrawal.
That is the message Ukraine and its Western allies, together with the UK, have publicly referred to as on Mr Xi to ship.
For any likelihood of success, he must be ready to do some brutal diplomatic arm twisting.
The Russians must make a big and painful concession, most likely involving giving up a lot of the land they’ve occupied, to make it work.
Mr Xi would most likely additionally want the Ukrainians to surrender a few of their said conflict goals, most likely beginning with Crimea – however he has much less affect there.
China – the peace dealer
Now, Mr Xi wields unique influence in Moscow, and China has these days proven shocking ability as a peace dealer.
His authorities this month pulled from its hat the diplomatic rabbit of a rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran.
However it’s troublesome to think about any stick or carrot he may deliver to Moscow that others haven’t already supplied.
The second choice is to return off the fence, settle for this conflict shall be selected the battlefield, and provides Mr Putin what he must win.
That might mirror the West’s personal said goal of placing Ukraine in a greater negotiating place when the time for speaking comes.
However it will additionally imply leaping with each ft into the quagmire Mr Xi has been tip-toeing round for a 12 months.
It might jeopardise China’s relationship with its greatest buying and selling companions, put it in a direct proxy conflict with the West, and sink its credibility as a non-aligned actor.
Neither is there any assure it will work.
Given these obstacles, one could possibly be forgiven for suspecting Mr Xi’s has no intention of trying the unattainable.
Final month, China’s international ministry printed a 12-point highway map to peace.
No highway map
It requires a resumption of peace talks with the aim of de-escalating tensions and ultimately reaching a ceasefire – however affords no concrete highway map for doing so.
It talks about sovereignty whereas making no point out of a Russian withdrawal, to the irritation of Ukraine.
Its solely express proposals – endorsing the grain deal to maintain world meals provides flowing, condemning nuclear weapons use and threats thereof, backing the IAEA to safe civilian nuclear energy crops – are these everybody already agrees with.
So maybe, behind the nice and cozy rhetoric about limitless partnerships, Mr Xi doesn’t actually intend to do a lot in any respect to assist his ally.
When he waves Mr Xi goodbye on Wednesday, Mr Putin will hope to have secured China’s backing to complete the conflict on Russian phrases.
However he might discover himself much less sure of his ally’s intentions, and questioning simply what the purpose of this partnership is.